Majune Kraido Socrates of the University of Nairobi has been selected as the winner of the 2020 Trade Economist Thematic Award, a new competition for specific research, which this year focused on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected trade and trade policy.
His paper, “The Effect of Lockdown Policies on International Trade Flows from Developing Countries: Event Study Evidence from Kenya” was praised by the Selection Committee. He received a prize of CHF 5,000.
Mr Socrates’ paper analysed how Kenya’s imports and exports were affected by lockdown measures that were imposed by trading partners to contain the spread of the virus.
The analysis was based on a weekly series of product-by-country data for imports and exports over a one-year period from 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020.
The paper showed that the introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners led to an average increase of weekly exports from Kenya by 12percent and an average decline of imports by 28percent.
The decline in imports was mainly caused by disruption of imports by sea from countries that introduced lockdown measures.
However, for the import and export of food commodities, a notable increase was recorded of 18percent and 25percent respectively.
This showed how demand for food commodities sustained Kenya’s exports. Overall, Kenyan exports to countries that had more stringent public health policy responses were significantly lower while imports from these countries were significantly higher.