Global merchandise trade is continuing to recover in 2021 following a steep but brief pandemic-induced drop in the second quarter of last year, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer released on 28 May.
The Goods Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends.
The barometer’s current reading of 109.7 is nearly 10 points above the baseline value of 100 for the index and up 21.6 points year-on-year, reflecting both the strength of the current recovery and the depth of the COVID-19 shock last year.
In the latest month, all of the barometer’s component indices were above trend and rising, highlighting the broad-based nature of the recovery and signaling an accelerating pace of trade expansion.
Among the barometer’s component indices, the biggest gains were seen in export orders (114.8), air freight (111.1) and electronic components (115.2), all of which are highly predictive of near-term trade developments.
The latest barometer reading is broadly in line with the WTO’s current trade forecast issued on 31 March, which predicted an 8percent pickup in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2021 following a 5.3percent decline the previous year.